Forecast

Forecasts to support day-to-day planning

&UP® Forecast uses historical and operational data to help plan volumes and prepare the resources needed to fulfil future orders well in advance.

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Forecasts tailored to different levels of planning

short-term forecasts for dispatchers and shift managers
weekly and monthly planning for operational teams
a longer-term perspective for decisions on network resources and development
estimates for parcels, pallets, bulky items and other categories of consignments
analysis of volumes, workload and resource requirements
a single source of data for operations, planning and management

E-commerce

Flexible order fulfilment, returns and COD settlement.

KEP

Courier and parcel logistics – high scale and SLA pressure.

Food

Distribution across multiple temperature zones and high delivery frequency.

Household appliances

Deliveries that include installation and customer service

Distribution of Car Parts

Dynamic parts delivery and service network support.

Pharmacy

Regulatory compliance, temperature control and full traceability.

Forecasting horizons – from one day to one year

The module supports four planning horizons, with daily resolution and the ability to roll forecasts during the period. Daily forecasts enable precise planning, whilst annual forecasts support contractual and investment decisions:

Short-term forecast (24–48 hours) – for the dispatcher and shift manager
Operational forecast (1–3 months) – for route planners and sorting centres
Tactical forecast (6 months) – for contracts and resource planning
Strategic forecast (12+ months) – for the management board and the sales department

Forecast segmentation

The forecasts are drawn up on a spatial basis, which corresponds to the structure of the distribution network.

Segmentation by delivery routes and directions
Classification by terminals, transhipment centres and operational regions
Domestic and international transport services
Analysis of volume distribution over time (collection and dispatch times)

Forecast versioning and scenarios

Multi-variant forecast management enables work to be carried out in parallel across several scenarios: base, pessimistic or campaign. Every change is logged, so the team knows who modified the assumptions, when and why:

Parallel versions of the forecast for different business scenarios
Manual adjustments to forecasts by authorised planners
A complete record of specifications and amendments
Saving a version from a specific point in time

Product categories and forecast parameters

The module supports various modes of transport, each with its own specific parameters.

Parcel shipments – number of pallet spaces, transport crates, volume, product composition
Pallets and general cargo consignments – number of pallet spaces, volume, actual weight, stackability
Letters and letter-post items – number of pallet spaces, broken down by category (priority, economy, commercial letters)
Configurable parameters – quantity, type of packaging, cargo characteristics

Forecasting methods

The module combines statistical methods, time series analysis and expert adjustments. The default models operate without the need for configuration; however, authorised users may customise the parameters and methods for selected segments:

Time series analysis taking into account trends and seasonality
Statistical models based on historical data
Scenario-based forecasting for unusual events
Integration of external data – market trends, seasonality and macroeconomic data

Forecast accuracy measurement

Each forecast is checked against actual operational volumes. The module compares not only the latest version of the forecast, but also the version that was current at the time the decision was made:

Comparison of forecasts with actual operational data
Assessment of the version of the forecast in force at the time of the planning decision
Configurable accuracy reporting period (weekly, monthly, quarterly)
A historical database of all forecast versions with a complete audit trail

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Preparing resources in advance

Forecasts enable us to contract carriers and plan sorting centre staffing levels before the workload increases.

Fewer emergencies

Rather than reacting to a spike in volume on the day of the event, the organisation plans a month and a week in advance.

Measurable quality of planning

Measuring the accuracy of forecasts enables us to continuously improve our models and planning processes.

Data for negotiations with customers and carriers

Network load forecasting as a strong sales argument.

Areas of management

The forecasting layer for the entire &UP® platform

The Forecast module can operate as a standalone forecasting tool or as an integral component of the &UP® platform.

The open API also allows for integration with the customer’s external TOS and TMS systems, provided the &UP® platform is implemented using a modular approach.

The process

How does it work?

See what the workflow looks like.

1

The module retrieves historical data from the &UP® platform and from the client’s external systems (ERP, CRM, WMS).
2

Forecasting algorithms analyse trends, seasonality, campaigns and one-off events, generating forecasts across various time horizons.
3

Authorised planners verify, amend and version the forecasts in accordance with their expert knowledge of planned events.
4

Forecasts are available in other modules of the platform and can be exported to the client’s external systems.